Speakers & Organizers   

www.polarisstrategies.com Biography
Dr. Shai is currently a senior consultant to Israel's security establishment as well as to foreign security agencies, and is a senior lecturer at the Hebrew University in Jerusalem.

Dr. Shai founded and served as the first commander of the reformed Command Academy & General Staff College of the Israel Defense Forces, 'Barak'. Prior to that position he headed the Command & Control Systems and Doctrines Branch at IDF/GHQ. He has also served, from 2004 to the present as a member of the IDF Chief of General Staff committee responsible for designing the IDF's current strategic concept.

Dr. Shai's 30 years of military experience in the IDF includes combat service in all of Israel's major wars since 1967 and he has been decorated with the Chief of the General Staff's Citation for his role in the defense of the Golan Heights during the Yom Kippur War of 1973. He holds a Masters and a Ph.D. in International Relations & Strategy from the Hebrew University of Jerusalem.

Dr. Shai lectures worldwide on the application of modern command and control systems in the military and civilian spheres, and has developed military-style command and control tools for the emergency preparedness and homeland security field, enabling agencies to cope with surprises and to respond flexibly and effectively in volatile situations.

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Session HS21: Preparing for Surprises: Leadership Lessons
from the Yom Kippur War, 9/11 and Hurricane Katrina
February 19, 9:00 - 9:45 Abstract:
Strategic surprises have been with us for a long time yet leaders and institutions continue to draw the wrong conclusions from them. In an age of global terror and natural disasters it is vital that local and national leaders learn the correct lessons from previous failures and prepare themselves accordingly.

Early warning has been the key to attempts to deal with the threat of surprises, yet it has failed repeatedly. Still, time and again, the institutional response to surprise attacks has been to try to predict and prevent future surprises by improving the intelligence product, information sharing and coordination and other intra-intelligence 'reforms'.

However, extensive academic research reveals that surprises are inevitable, cannot be prevented and must be taken into account by leaders. A new executive paradigm is therefore necessary, one that factors surprise into decision-making and strategic planning, and prepares accordingly.

This presentation will demonstrate a new doctrine and operating concept suitable for use by local and national governments and their staffs in preparing for the unexpected.