Speakers & Organizers   

www.avon.com Biography
Brian Seymour is an Analyst for the Global Security Department of Avon Products Inc. He is responsible for the creation of the Security Designee Global Training Program. Before joining Avon Brian was a Travel Security Program Consultant for Control Risks Group in the New York City. In between a BA in Psychology from Boston University and a Masters in Security Management from John Jay College of Criminal Justice in New York, Brian lived for five years in Tokyo, Japan as a writer and teacher and traveled extensively throughout Asia. Brian has been a guest speaker at the ASIS International Emerging Trends in Security Technology and Practice Professional Development course and has had articles published on Game Theory and Behavior Pattern Recognition.

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BI33: Game Theory and the Probability of Risk
February 20, 11:00 - 11:45 Abstract:
Planning for hazardous risks requires an understanding of probability. The probability of something being possible can either be figured mathematically or by existing evidence. Game Theory strives to predict human behavior in non-cooperative competitive interactions. It uses mathematical propositions to predict the outcome when players have conflicting interest. Recently, some security and risk management professionals have advocated using principles based on game theory to try to model or predict the probability of a terrorist attack. These emerging ideas are useful to provoke discussion on some traditional assumptions on defending targets against a possible terrorist attack. Game Theory is one of many methods to predict the occurrence of hazardous risks for the purpose of allocating defensive resources. The reason we need to understand all the tools available; we are so bad at predicting the future!